July 22nd, 2020

FanDuel DFS: 7/29

Aces are on the docket tonight. Gerrit Cole, Jacob deGrom, Charlie Morton, Chris Paddack, and Brandon Woodruff take the hill. There are plenty of value bats, so my general strategy is to pay up for a stud pitcher with a good matchup. There’s also one homer-happy pitcher on the slate whose opponents might feast on the long ball in a surprisingly good hitter’s park.

Value Plays: Pitcher

Andrew Heaney (LAA ) vs. SEA: 7,100
Matchup: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Risk: Low

Joe Musgrove (PIT) vs MIL 7,700:
Matchup:  ⭐⭐⭐⭐Risk: High

Heaney had a decent first start (by 2020’s standards) against the A’s, pitching 4.2 innings while allowing just two baserunners and striking out six. I expect him to get a little more leash in his second start, and he is again pitching in an extreme pitcher’s park against a weak offense. His velocity was slightly down, but I expect that to change as he continues to get stretched out.

Musgrove’s velocity was also down, but the Pirates’ velocity has been down across the board. It may just be a radar gun problem. Musgrove still had seven strikeouts in 5.2 innings during his first go-around, so he’s still able to get the swings-and-misses that are necessary in DFS. The Brewers’ lineup isn’t as intimidating in years’ past, and PNC Park is one of the best pitcher’s parks in the league.

Catcher/ First Base
Gary Sanchez (NYY)@BAL: 2,900
Matchup: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Risk: Medium

Salvador Perez (KCR)@ DET: 2,800
Matchup: ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Risk: Low

C.J. Cron (DET)vs. KCR: 3,100
Matchup: ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Risk: Medium

Miguel Sano (MIN)vs. STL: 2,700
Matchup: ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Risk: High

There are tons of options at C/1B today. Sanchez is going to face a bad team in a great hitter’s park that hasn’t played since Sunday. He hasn’t gotten a hit yet this year, but he was among the league leaders in barrel rate last year. Did I mention that he’s facing Asher Wojciechowski in Camden Yards?

Perez gets a matchup against Matthew Boyd (that homer-happy pitcher mentioned above), and Comerica Park was a sneaky good hitter’s park last year. Perez is also 9-for-28 against Boyd in his career with seven doubles and two homers.

Cron gets the same sneaky good park as Perez, and he also posts solid numbers against Danny Duffy. He’s slashed .375/.400/.857 in 14 at-bats. Duffy wasn’t great in his first start, and I expect Cron to take advantage.

Sano is dirt-cheap, and he’s been crushing the ball despite a poor start to the season. He will face Daniel Ponce de Leon, who may not get a lot of run. The Cardinals’ bullpen is weak at the moment, so it wouldn’t surprise me if Sano was a top points-getter Wednesday.

Second Base
Adam Frazier (PIT)vs. MIL: 2,200
Matchup: ⭐⭐⭐⭐Risk: Medium

Luis Arraez (MIN)vs. STL: 2,800
Matchup: ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Risk: Low

Tommy La Stella (LAA)vs. SEA: 2,900
Matchup: ⭐⭐⭐⭐Risk: Low

Frazier has slashed .400/.500/.600 against Woodruff in 10 at-bats and will likely bat leadoff or at the top of the order. That means more opportunities to score. His low price offers a chance to beef up at starting pitcher or other positions, and he will probably be minimally owned in both cash games and tournaments.

Arraez has been on fire to start the season, collecting five hits in 12 at-bats. While he will bat in the lower third of the order, Target Field is a great source for runs. Arraez is priced low because of his lack of power, but he has a safer floor than any other second baseman.

La Stella could bat in the upper third of the order, and there’s a chance that rookie starting pitcher Justin Dunn isn’t ready for the moment. La Stella combines the floor of Arraez due to his lack of strikeouts with runs potential like Frazier by batting near the top of the order.

Third Base
Jeff McNeil (NYM)vs. BOS: 2,800
Matchup: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐Risk: Low

Gio Urshela (NYY)@ BAL: 2,700
Matchup:⭐⭐⭐⭐Risk: Medium

McNeil has been crushing baseballs; he hit three balls over 100 mph on Opening Day. He will bat in the upper third of the order, and he is facing Nathan Eovaldi. Eovaldi got hit hard and didn’t strike many out in his first start, so he doesn’t appear to be back to his 2018 levels. The only downside is that he is likely to be highly owned at this price. But that’s just fine for cash games.

Everything about Gary Sanchez above applies to Urshela. If Urshela doesn’t start, Miguel Andujar at $2,500 also is a value play. Wojciechowski has a 5.76 ERA and 5.13 FIP in 161 big-league innings. Using these types of players is a great contrarian stack with many DFS players preferring the Yankees’ stars.

Shortstop
Dansby Swanson (ATL)vs. TAM: 2,900
Matchup: ⭐⭐⭐Risk: Medium

Amed Rosario (NYM)vs. BOS: 2,600
Matchup:⭐⭐⭐⭐Risk: Low

Swanson has been on fire to start the season, hitting two homers in five games. He will face Charlie Morton, whose velocity was significantly down in his first start. He gave up six runs in just four innings on Opening Day. Swanson, despite the great start, may not be highly owned due to facing an ace. Stacking Braves against Morton could work in GPPs, as they will be under the radar.

Rosario gets to face Eovaldi, making him an attractive option for a cheap Mets stack. Rosario will probably bat in the bottom of the order, which limits some of his upside. Shortstop is the weakest of the value plays, so I recommend paying up, which you’ll see below.

Outfield
Aaron Hicks (NYY)@ BAL: 2,500
Matchup: ⭐⭐⭐⭐Risk: Medium

Yoenis Cespedes (NYM)vs. BOS: 2.600
Matchup:⭐⭐⭐⭐ Risk: Medium

Hicks is off to a very slow start, but playing the Orioles should wake him up. Keep in mind that he is normally a 25-30 home run hitter and should have plenty of run and RBI opportunities if he’s in the lineup.

Cespedes hit the game-winning homer on Opening Day, and he is 4-for-11 against Eovaldi. Limited sample size, sure, but this fits right in line with targeting a rusty pitcher.\

5 Studs Worth Their Salary

• Chris Paddack (SD – SP) $9,700: Paddack had a fantastic Opening Day start, pitching six innings of shutout baseball against the Diamondbacks. His velocity was also a tick up from last year. Now, he gets to face a poor hitting team in the Giants in the best pitcher’s park in baseball, Oracle Park. He’s a fantastic option for cash games.
• Gleyber Torres (SS – NYY) $3,200: Torres hit a divisional record 13 bombs against the Orioles last year. He also had five multi-homer games against them. This is as big of a no-brainer as it gets.
• Whit Merrifield (OF – KC) $3,200: Merrifield should be the main feature in an under-the-radar Royals stack. He has hit an absurd .513/.548/.744 in 39 at-bats against Boyd. While Merrifield has averaged only ten homers a season, he already has two this year.
• Paul Goldschmidt (1B – STL) $3,700: Goldschmidt has slashed a ridiculous .474/.524/.790 against Rich Hill in 19 at-bats. There’s a good chance that Hill is rusty after a very long layoff and getting his first start pushed back, meaning that Goldschmidt could capitalize on a couple of mistakes.
• Christian Yelich (OF – MIL) $4,300: Yelich has a .385 average and .846 slugging percentage against Musgrove in 13 at-bats. It would be classic Yelich to get off the snide by having a monster game, wouldn’t it? He’ll probably be relatively under-owned as a result of his slump. Take advantage.

4 Notable Players to Fade

• Charlie Morton (SP – TB) $9,400: Morton’s velocity was down to 92 mph in his Opening Day start, and he just didn’t fully look like himself. He goes against a Braves lineup that has a fantastic 1-5 in the batting order. In cash games, I’m not taking the risk.
• Josh Bell (1B – PIT) $3,200: Bell has struggled mightily over 14 at-bats against Woodruff. Plus, his home park is suboptimal for doing what he does best – hitting homers. There are way too many other solid first base options on the slate.
• Anthony Rendon (3B – LAA) $4,000: Rendon just came back from an oblique injury, so I’m not dropping $4K on him when McNeil is available for pennies on the dollar.
• Wil Myers (OF – SD) $3,000: Myers is off to a great start to 2020, but has three hits in just 22 at-bats against probable Giants starter Johnny Cueto. Combine that poor performance with hitting in San Francisco, and the end result is a hard fade.